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Kusu News 10-Jan-2022

Southeast Asia to be fastest-growing region globally in 2022, despite new COVID-19 variants

13-Dec-2021 Money Compass

Growth across Southeast Asian economies contracted in the third quarter of 2021, because of the challenges of the COVID-19 Delta variant. However, Southeast Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing region in the world in 2022 with a growth forecast of 6.1%, as a result of high immunisation coverage with Malaysia just behind Singapore in fully vaccinated population.

The forecast was presented by Sian Fenner, Lead Asia Economist at Oxford Economics, at an Economic Insight Forum held by chartered accountancy body ICAEW on December 2. At the forum, industry leaders and experts discussed Southeast Asia’s economic outlook, with a focus on regional trade agreements and their impact on supply chains and business relations.

Sian was joined by other panellists: Csilla Lakatos, Senior Trade Economist for Indonesia and Timor-Leste, World Bank; Edwin Yap, Executive Director, CJ Century Logistics; and Elaine Hong, ICAEW Regional Director for China and Southeast Asia. They also discussed the importance of free-trade agreements and the implications of diversifying sourcing and production.

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Economists question whether China will ever overtake the U.S. as the top global economy

Current estimates claim China could become the top economy by the early 2030s

30-Dec-2021 FoxBusiness

Some experts have questioned the narrative that China will "inevitably" overtake the U.S. as the top economic power in the world.

China has set its sights on overtaking the U.S. through the symbolic gesture of its GDP surpassing that of the U.S., with 2020 providing a humbling opportunity as the U.S. economy shrank due to lockdowns and issues emerging out of the pandemic. The drop represented a relative gain of $1 trillion, putting China’s economy at $6.2 trillion behind the U.S.

Most economists believe that this will see China overtake the U.S. by the early 2030s, especially with  seemingly faster rebound from the pandemic hit to the global economy.

But some economists argue that the signs are not as robust for China as the CCP would like the world to believe, leading some to believe that China might not overtake the U.S. in the near future, if at all – barring a total collapse or other disaster for the U.S. economy. 

The U.S. GDP fell 2.3% while China’s grew by the same percentage during the pandemic, but China’s per-capita GDP is still far below that of the U.S. by about 20%, according to calculations by Bloomberg economists. 

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Advancing the trade cure

Trade liberalization and international economic cooperation can help the world weather whatever crisis comes its way

6-Jan-2022 The Japan Times

GENEVA – The only thing that is certain about the future is uncertainty. And that is true of the future of trade as well.

Despite repeated prior warnings of a possible global pandemic, COVID-19 took the world by surprise. The impact on trade was swift and dramatic. In the second quarter of 2020, when much of the world was under lockdown, the volume of global merchandise trade plunged by 15% year on year — the type of sharp decline rarely seen outside of wartime.

Few would have guessed then that by the first quarter of 2021, less than a year after the pandemic began, trade volumes would surpass pre-pandemic levels and reach new record highs. Governments’ restraint in the use of protectionist trade measures, together with large-scale fiscal and monetary support, helped drive economic recovery. In October 2021, the World Trade Organization raised its forecast for growth in global-merchandise trade in 2021 to 10.8% — up from 8% previously — and to 4.7% in 2022.

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Cambodia PM to visit Myanmar, pressing peace plan

6-Jan-2022 Reuters

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has pledged renewed support for a Myanmar peace plan and urged an end to violence ahead of a trip to the country that will include talks with military leaders.

His visit from Friday will be the first by a head of government to Myanmar since the army overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1 last year, sparking months of protests and a bloody crackdown.

Cambodia is current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has been leading diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and which adopted a five-point "consensus" peace plan in April.

Some other ASEAN countries including Indonesia have expressed frustration at the junta's failure to implement the peace deal. In Myanmar, opponents of the military rulers have said Hun Sen is backing them by making the trip.

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China: Is it burdening poor countries with unsustainable debt?

6-Jan-2022 BBC

China has faced criticism for its lending practices to poorer countries, accused of leaving them struggling to repay debts and therefore vulnerable to pressure from Beijing.

But that is rejected by China, which accuses some in the West of promoting this narrative to tarnish its image.

It says: "There is not a single country that has fallen into [a] so-called 'debt trap' as a result of borrowing from China."

What do we know about China's lending?

China is one of the world's largest single creditor nations.

Its loans to lower and middle-income countries have tripled over the past decade, reaching $170bn (£125bn) by the end of 2020.

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